Election plunges Australian politics into uncertainty
After an Aug. 21 election in which neither major party in Australian politics received a majority, Julia Gillard of the Australian Labor Party managed to form the first minority government since 1940 by attracting the support of one Green parliamentarian and three independents. The incumbent center-left party led by Gillard ran an extremely close race against the center-right Liberal-National Coalition led by Tony Abbott, with neither winning the needed 76 seats to form a majority government in Parliament. Both parties then turned to the few available crossbench MPs. The Labor Party had already forged an alliance with the Green Party by agreeing to renew its focus on climate change. As Julian Sherwin, a Harvard freshman and native of Melbourne, pointed out, “the independents hold the balance of power” and are able to make demands on the two major parties.
The nature of the minority government will make things harder for Gillard. There will have to be changes in the priorities of the Labor Party and Liberal-National coalition as they reconsider what is workable in such a closely divided Parliament. Though Gillard will have to fight for every bill, avoiding the temptation to tackle only small issues will be crucial for a successful term.
The Art of the Possible
Michael Fullilove, director of the Global Issues Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, told the HPR that there may be “unexpected action” from the Gillard minority government. For example, the recently formed Labor-Green alliance has already opened up the debate on carbon pricing.
The Labor Party will have to deal with each issue individually. Gillard will have to take into consideration that two of the independents currently supporting her have conservative roots and were in fact once members of the National Party, which is currently part of the Liberal-led coalition. As Patrick Weller, director of the Centre for Governance and Public Policy at Griffith University, told the HPR, “Everything’s going to have to be negotiated one by one so that each item has to take account of the Greens and the rural Independents.” Weller continued, “It’s going to be a very difficult tightrope to walk on all the time, balancing what they think is important against what they can actually manage.”
Go Big or Go Home
Still, although it will be a struggle, it may be better for the Labor Party to pursue some of its bigger agenda items, such as its environmental platform and the National Broadband Network. After all, Labor’s decision to defer on its Emissions Trading Scheme, a cap-and-trade proposal, contributed to its falling out of favor with the public. And two of the independent backers of the Labor government are strong supporters of building the broadband network.
When Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister, dropped the ETS, many accused him of political cowardice. The Labor Party’s credibility on climate issues was severely compromised, especially since Rudd had previously described climate change as “the greatest moral, economic, and environmental challenge of our generation.” Most of the support that Labor lost went to the Greens. Some consider the increased support for the Greens to be a repudiation by more progressive Labor voters of the party’s decision to postpone the ETS.
Even though the debate on climate change and putting a price on carbon is starting up again, one might not expect much change because of the opposition from the coalition. Tony Abbott has vowed to fight Labor’s broadband network, with its $43 billion price tag, its mining tax, and any carbon pricing proposals. “Sometimes oppositions will support governments on particular legislation, but their primary preoccupation is to win power,” Fullilove said. The intransigence of the opposition will make it even more important for Gillard to satisfy the independents and the Greens.
Weller noted, “The traditional votes for the two major parties have been declining,” though this recent election is the first time since 1940 that neither party has been able to form a majority government. “Increasingly in the last decade,” said Weller, the two major parties “have both shifted somewhat towards the center.” But, somewhat counter-intuitively, the best course for the Labor government at this juncture may be to follow through on some of its biggest proposals and promises.
Cindy Hsu ’14 is a Contributing Writer.