The Nile is commonly considered to be the longest river system in the World. Originating in Lake Victoria and the Ethiopian Highlands, it covers about 6000 kilometers before reaching Mediterranean Sea. Although it is not naturally navigable, the Nile provides fresh water to its riparian states for irrigation and domestic use.
For this reason, however, the Nile is often a source of disagreement between the countries of Northeast Africa. The stakes in this conflict are particularly high for Egypt: about 90 percent of its water comes from the Nile, and 99 percent of its population lives along the river. President Sisi of Egypt once said that the Nile is “a matter of life or death” for his country, and Egypt often reacts with great hostility in matters concerning the Nile. In particular, the struggle and scramble for the Nile’s water is breeding animosity between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
The Nature of the Nile
The multinational nature of the Nile raises the likelihood of water conflict. There are 10 countries — Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the D.R.C., South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt — vying for a sizeable share of its water. The right to this water has been a significant cause of tension for centuries, and the 1929 and 1959 Nile Water Agreements gave Egypt extensive rights over the river use for much of the 20th century.
Today, Egypt’s supremacy is being challenged. The lack of cooperation among the riparian states increases the potential of conflict regarding the Nile. Michael T. Klare, professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College, writes in his book Resource Wars that “states normally rely on resources entirely within their borders until they are exhausted. When that happens, nations naturally seek to maximize their share of contested materials, increasing the risk of conflict with their neighbors.” This situation is often explosive and disruptive even in the case of preexisting harmony and good relations between competing nations.
However, in an interview with the HPR, Klare ruled out the possibility of Nile water politics leading to a full-blown military conflict. Due to the domestic crises facing Egyptian government, Klare argued, Cairo will concentrate on putting its own house in order, in the near term.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
As Ethiopia has turned its attention towards increasingly ambitious infrastructure projects in recent years, its gaze has, perhaps inevitably, fallen on the Nile. In April 2011, it started the construction of Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a branch of the river originating in the country. The construction is reportedly at 62 percent completion, but with the price tag of $5 billion, it is the most expensive hydroelectric project in Africa. The dam is projected to generate at least 6450 MW of power, an enormous boost to Ethiopia’s current output of 4000 MW. For Egypt, this appears an absolute disaster in the making.
Egyptian President Nasser observing the construction of the Aswan High Dam.
In 2013, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan formed a trilateral committee composed of the countries’ water ministers to assess the effects of the dam on Egypt and Sudan. After much wrangling over the dam’s possible negative impacts, the trilateral commission decided to appoint consultancy firms BRLi and Deltares to study the impacts of the GERD. After three months, Deltares unexpectedly pulled out of the project, citing a lack of independence as prohibitive of a high quality study. This eventually affected Cairo trilateral talks in September 2017, when Egyptian officials rejected the legitimacy of the results tabled by BRLi. The commission was dissolved, complicating relations among these countries. Since then, Egypt has sought to stop the construction of the dam in any way possible, and even seems to have considered bombing the project area. Such suggestions have not been helpful. Cairo now wants to negotiate because it has no leverage over Ethiopia, which is not bound by the terms and conditions of past pacts.
The negotiations have sourced the already-poor relations between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt accused Sudan of siding with Ethiopia in the talks, and asked that Sudan be excluded from talks. Egypt also recommended the World Bank oversee the negotiations, which Ethiopia rejected. Khartoum responded by recalling its ambassador to Cairo for “consultations” on January 4, following media reports of Egypt sending troops to Eritrea, which shares a border with Sudan. Sudan also closed its borders with Eritrea and sent troops to the border region of Kassala. These developments have slowed down diplomatic means of resolving the crisis.
Consolidation of Alliances in the Nile Water Politics
Egypt has abandoned its strident tone in favor of diplomacy now that Ethiopia has shown no signs of halting the construction of GERD. To avoid losing entirely, Egypt seems to be turning to other countries in the region for assistance. It is no wonder it has become increasingly involved in the affairs of South Sudan. On November 16, 2017, the Egyptian government led the unification of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement factions of South Sudan in pursuit of peace in the young state.
Further south, the East Africa Community, a collection of upstream countries, is also looking to change the long-standing dynamics of water politics. Although they opposed past agreements on the grounds that they were endorsed by the British Empire during the colonial period, these countries now assert that they hold a greater claim to the Nile’s waters because the White Nile, which contributes 15 percent of the river’s water, originates from their highlands.
In 2010, the East African states signed a deal in Uganda on how to share Nile waters. Charity Ngilu, then Kenyan Minister of Water, declared to reporters, “That treaty [1929] is obsolete. Nothing stops us to use the water as we wish. It is now up to Egypt to come on board.” The late Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi, was similarly optimistic about his country’s rights to the water. In an interview, Zenawi told Reuters that “the Egyptians have yet to make up their minds as to whether they want to live in the 21st or the 19th century.”
The East African countries have expressed plans to dam the rivers that drain into Lake Victoria. However, it is unlikely that they will do so because these rivers have narrow and steep banks, meaning any large obstruction could cause flooding in the region. In an interview with HPR, Alex De Waal, the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, categorically deemed the East African states “secondary partners with the least role in Nile water politics.” Unlike Egypt, they do not rely heavily on the Nile water because they receive adequate annual rainfall.
The Fate of The Nile
At this point, regardless of Egypt’s objections, the construction of GERD will go on. The Ethiopian government has stated that it intends to fund the entire cost of the dam. This puts Egypt in a corner, the only escape from which is through the negotiating table. One of its major challenges will be synchronizing the operation of Aswan High Dam with that of GERD. As Ethiopia plans to fill the dam in three years, Egypt will receive less water downstream during that time. Therefore, both countries will have to make compromises: Egypt should fund the construction of transmission lines, while Ethiopia reduces the rate at which the dam fills.
Mutual suspicions cloud attempts by the two nations to cooperate. Because the GERD is more efficient at storing water than the Aswan High Dam, De Waal explained, it would make more sense to store water in Ethiopia. However, Egypt believes that the GERD will allow Ethiopia to control Egypt’s access to water, and thus place the latter in a strategically vulnerable position.
Despite this distrust, armed conflict between the countries seems unlikely. According to De Waal, “if it’s just a question of the water, there should be no war between Ethiopia and Egypt.” Indeed, in a televised address, Sisi has made it clear that Egypt is not planning to go to war with African countries.
While the war of words will continue for the time being, there is still hope that constructive dialogue will allow both sides to come to a mutually-agreeable solution. As Maxim Worcester puts it, “Water will not be [the] hindrance to peace if there is the political will to avoid conflict.” At the end of the day, everyone needs water.
Image Credit: Public Domain Images/Krishna Pillai // Bibliotheca Alexandrina