Egyptian president’s desire to remain in power complicates the succession process
Since assuming power after Anwar El-Sadat’s assassination in 1981, President Hosni Mubarak, 82, has ruled Egypt unrelentingly. However, questions regarding his health have arisen following gallbladder surgery performed in March. Still, the president recently announced that he would run for a sixth six-year term in 2011.
The president’s reluctance to name a successor puts Egypt on a precarious path when it comes to succession and transition into the post-Mubarak era. Whoever assumes the presidency will have a short window of opportunity to learn from President Mubarak. It would be in Egypt’s best interests for the president to groom someone who will be ready to lead.
Further complicating the picture is the possibility of the president’s sudden death. In that event, opposition parties would have a chance to mobilize and display their strength, potentially fracturing Egyptian society. A power struggle in the ruling party would be likely, given the large pool of potential candidates—including the President’s son, Gamal.
A Wide Open Field
In recent years, Gamal Mubarak has risen in the ranks of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), serving as deputy secretary general and as a member of the party’s supreme council. In a 2009 Congressional Research Service report, Gamal was forecasted to be “the overwhelming favorite to follow his father.” However, in recent months, this assumption has waned among the Egyptian public.
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, a Qatar-based think tank, told the HPR, “It’s not a foregone conclusion” that Gamal will succeed his father. “If President Mubarak wanted to name his son [his successor], he would have named his son by now,” Hamid said.
Gamal’s fall from favor with the public is largely a result of growing discontent with dynastic rule. Opposition groups use the term “la lil tawrith” to describe their frustration. Meaning “no to inheritance,” “la lil tawrith” has been used by organizations like Kifaya, a pro-democracy movement officially called the Egyptian Movement for Change, as a battle cry during their street protests.
Another frontrunner for succession to the presidency is Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman, who heads the General Intelligence Service. He is a close confidant of the president and is closely involved with the inner workings of the administration. However, his old age (73) and affiliation with the military are factors that work against him. His reign as president would presumably be short, which might discourage his selection, and he would be required by law to retire from military service and join the NDP’s Supreme Council for a year before becoming president. These issues are serious barriers to Lt. Gen. Suleiman’s candidacy, opening the door for others within the NDP.
The Arab World’s Lesson
As the most populous country in the Arab world and a strong ally of the United States, Egypt is an important player in the attempt to move the region towards democracy. But the country’s brand of democracy is hardly an exemplary model, and many condemn the authoritarian nature of President Mubarak’s tenure. In his 2005 election, Mubarak rigged the vote and had dissidents arrested.
Meanwhile, in neighboring Arab countries, family dynasties have grown in popularity, as the leaders of Libya and Yemen prepare to cede power to their sons. Leaders in Tunisia and Algeria have explored the possibility of following suit. If President Mubarak were to explicitly name Gamal his successor, it could severely undermine democratization in the Arab world, even though Gamal would then have to win through the ballot box. However, democratization is not the only important issue to consider.
Gamal may be the best choice out of a sea of unappealing options for Egypt. A military coup or protracted NDP power seems likely otherwise. “Gamal Mubarak is the best bet if you care about Egypt’s long term democratic prospects,” wrote Harvard Kennedy School professor Tarek Masoud recently in Foreign Policy.
Egypt thus faces two options: secure its own stability by choosing a successor to President Mubarak who would, through his example, undermine democratization in the Arab world; or repudiate Libya and Yemen’s shift to dynastic rule, but open the door to a possible takeover by the opposition. The choice is not an easy one, which might explain the somewhat mixed signals emerging from Cairo.
Andrew Seo ’14 is a Contributing Writer.
Photo Credit: Flickr (efouche)