Dear Members of the Senate and House of Representatives,
I am writing to encourage you to oppose any efforts to impose new sanctions on the Iranian regime. Contrary to popular belief, the Iranian people do have some say in the running of their government, and their election of Hassan Rouhani to the position of President clearly demonstrates that the majority of the people are feeling the crushing impact of the current sanctions. The decision of the Guardian Council and Ayatollah Khamenei to allow the pursuit of negotiations now indicates that they understand the threat to the regime that continued sanctions represent. With success of the current system in bringing Iranian negotiators to the table in Geneva with serious proposals, it would be devastating to any possible diplomatic solution to add even more sanctions to those currently in place.
The most crucial reason to avoid placing more sanctions on the Iranian regime at this point is the likelihood that doing so would doom any potential diplomatic solution. Some analysts have argued that the negotiations are simply a ploy to buy time, and that these talks will be no different. However, there are several crucial differences between current discussions and previous talks. First, Saeed Jalili, the former chief nuclear negotiator who has been described as “not actually trying to negotiate an agreement,” has been replaced with negotiators from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Rather than being appointed by the Supreme Leader, as Jalili was, the Foreign Minister is chosen by the President and confirmed by Parliament. This means that although the Supreme Leader continues to maintain his veto over any final deal, he is allowing Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, an experienced and capable diplomat, to fully pursue negotiations, not to simply put on a diplomatic show.
The current talk of refusing to lift any of the current sanctions minus major Iranian concessions, or even of adding additional sanctions to the current program, will be devastating to any continuing talks. The Supreme Leader and his advisors recognize that the sanctions are devastating to the country, leaving thousands unemployed and causing major inflation making the Iranian rial near worthless. A primary reason for the resumption of the nuclear talks by the Iranians is the intense pressure that sanctions have placed on their economy. As such, the main goal of the Iranian negotiators will be to seek concrete relief from the sanctions pressure. The United States holds the main power over continuing these sanctions, putting it in a very strong bargaining position at the outset of negotiations.
While it may seem that setting specific criteria for the Iranian government to meet before lifting sanctions, such as the complete shutdown of all nuclear enrichment activities, is a viable strategy considering this strong position, this view is mistaken. The Iranian government, especially the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini, holds the view that the overall goal of the United States is to overthrow the regime. By demanding that Iran give up its main bargaining chip, its nuclear enrichment program, as a precondition for talking about lifting the sanctions, Congress will make it more likely that Iranian leaders will back out of the talks. This is because they will suspect that the ultimate goal of the United States is not to bring an end to the Iranian nuclear program, but to destabilize and overthrow the regime by maintaining the sanctions even after nuclear enrichment has been halted. Talk of adding further to the sanctions sends the same message to the Iranian leaders.
It is undeniable that the sanctions have had a crippling impact on the Iranian economy. The middle class is shrinking, unemployment is rising, and the people of Iran have demonstrated with their election of Hassan Rouhani that they have had enough. The ultimate objective of the United States should not be further punishing Iran for its enrichment activities, but in using sanctions as a tool of diplomacy to advance the goal of restricting the nuclear program. Sanctions as an end unto themselves, while satisfying to domestic constituencies, will in the end cause greater instability, suffering, and bitterness in Iran and with the United States. This will occur without the United States accomplishing its objective of restricting the program, as the Iranian regime has clearly shown that they will accept very high punishment in their pursuit of continued enrichment. I ask you to please suspend your disbelief and simply allow the negotiators in Geneva a few months to work out a possible deal. Don’t worry; the current sanctions won’t be going anywhere until that deal is reached.
Sincerely,
Wright Smith