The stability of authoritarianism in China
The recent U.S. presidential election demonstrated that the democratic process can be brutal and exhausting as candidates vie for positions of executive power. This scramble in times of succession does not exist in China, where election season is not about campaigning. China has, through its control of the election process, managed to avoid the unstable period of succession that authoritarian and, sometimes, democratic regimes face. The previous belief that authoritarian regimes like China would evolve into democracies is outdated. China will continue to have an authoritarian regime because it is not threatened by the uncertainty of succession or the pressures to democratize.
A Theory Abandoned
Ten years ago, the hope of American politicians and foreign relations experts was that authoritarian regimes would naturally democratize through trade and diplomatic relations with democratic nations. Recent history, however, indicates that the Chinese government will not require democratic elections as its method of succession to maintain authority and legitimacy. Steven Weber, who directs the Institute of International Studies at U.C.-Berkley and researches “sustainable authoritarianism,” told the HPR that the “presumption that authoritarian regimes were by their nature fragile in a globalizing world economy is now viewed with healthy skepticism.”
Elizabeth Perry, Director of the Harvard-Yenching Institute, also told the HPR that the “pendulum has shifted among political scientists” regarding the possibility of sustained authoritarianism in countries such as China. She noted, “We’re not going to see a transition to liberal democratic regimes. We’re not going to see the interests of those countries align more closely with those of the U.S.” Today, China, the world’s largest exporter, has economic and political interests of its own that are enforced by an authoritarian regime not dependent upon the Western model of succession by democratic election.
Models of Succession
To be strong and prosperous, a country must maintain smooth transitions between administrations. This is a traditional characteristic of democracies that some authoritarian regimes including China can now claim. “Most revolutionary regimes are very strong, but the Achilles’ heel of authoritarian regimes is succession,” noted Steven Levitsky, a government professor at Harvard, in an interview with the HPR. China’s peaceful predictability at election time is, in part, a result of the ruling Communist Party’s control of every level of the succession process. In addition, by establishing financial stability and security, China’s strong and growing economy has helped the country overcome the challenges of succession.
Other authoritarian regimes solve the problem of succession through different methods of controlling the process. In the past, Syria and Egypt, for example, have used dynastic succession to eliminate any question of an heir, a model Saudi Arabia still employs with relative success. Cuba has used what Levitsky called “a band-aid” approach: Raúl Castro replaced his ailing brother, and the country appears—for now—to be stable. Pakistan, by contrast, has been plagued by internal instability in part because of its inability to ensure smooth successions. It has thus oscillated between militaristic and civilian regimes for decades. Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States, told the HPR that Pakistan “needs a more structured form of government so you know there’s a predictability of the process.” It now looks as though Pakistan is taking the democratic route, succession of which is predictable so long as proper popular representation is maintained and civil institutions are strong.
A Winning Combination, For Now
In 1998, President Bill Clinton declared, “China will choose its own destiny.” Ten years later, it is apparent that China has chosen to be a great power ruled by a powerful single-party revolutionary regime. The previous hope for a democratic China expired as China invented its own demonstrably successful recipe for stable growth. The combination of a history of revolution and nationalism—associated with a strong Communist Party, economic success, and international sway—has created a state on a model to rival that of Western governments. The stability and predictability of succession in China paves the nation’s authoritarian path, unlikely to be threatened by democracy or regime change in the near term. Any threat to China’s stability will most likely evolve from one of the internal political groups stifled by the controlled political system. It was Mao Tse-Tung who once noted, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”