The announcement of ICC charges against Moammar Gadhafi on Monday comes as yet another sign that the reign of the aged Libyan leader may soon be up. With official warrants for his release now on the table, it is only a matter of time until Gadhafi is safely locked away within the Hague to await an almost certain guilty verdict- or at least that should be the case. Yet “should” and “will be” are very different in such situations, especially considering ICC arrests have, historically, served little purpose. Without any actual means of enforcing its warrants, the ICC is often at the mercy of fickle national governments intent on following its rules only as often as convenient.
Case in point, Omar al-Bashir is not only still in power in Northern Sudan, despite an ICC warrant against him, but continues to turn a blind eye, if not even support the massacre of Sudanese separatists (who are no longer citizens of his nation). Even more, he is still regularly received in China and Russia as a legitimate foreign leader. This for a man who has had an arrest warrant sitting over his head for two years-a warrant with the words of genocide on its pages no less. Like Gadhafi, Bashir is a monster who continues to wreak havoc on the unfortunate people born within the boundaries of his state.
Still, punishments have been relatively meager from the international community and next to nonexistent from the ICC against such troubled dictators. Unable to do much of anything until a foreign government or UN security force drops criminals in its lap (recall the recent arrest of Mladic by the Serbian government), the ICC is largely ineffective. With its propensity for demanding the arrest of enemies of certain western, UN Security Council-holding states (of which it is safe to say Moammar Gadhafi is one), the court has demonstrated itself to be little more than a tool by which said states can justify acts of military aggression ex post facto (remember there’s only a no-fly zone in Libya). Gadhafi supporter and Libyan Justice Minister Mohammed Al Qamod has said (and with some logic) that “this court [ICC] is nothing but a cover to the military operations of NATO,” and “is merely a political tool for exerting pressure and political blackmail against sovereign countries.”
While NATO usually (but not always) has good reason (namely, mass murder of innocents) for its interventions, the bias of the court is an issue that has lead many states to selectively follow its declarations with little to no fear of retribution. Al-Bashir is supported by the African Union, Arab League, Chinese, and Russian governments which routinely involve him in diplomatic relations (indeed cooperating with a wanted criminal). Moreover, a recent Wikileak stating that al-Bashir stole $9 billion from the Sudanese has given additional firepower to a prosecutor in the Netherlands but has changed little in terms of removing him from power.
Thus, Gadhafi’s new distinction as an international criminal is largely meaningless, and furthermore may even be detrimental in the efforts to end the conflict in Libya. With the declaration in existence there remains no escape for the somewhat unbalanced dictator and therefore it seems only more likely that he will choose to fight out the conflict to the brutal end rather than broker any kind of peace deal. Just when it seemed that peace talks might at last begin, this new declaration now gives the Brother Leader all the more reason to keep fighting. For as CNN Libyan-born analyst Ali Ahmida from the University of New England warns:
“Since last week, things were heating up toward an exit strategy for Gadhafi and his sons, either inside or outside Libya in another African country. Some rebel leaders in the Transitional National Council said they would consider allowing Gadhafi to stay inside Libya, and both sides were starting to indicate a compromise was possible.”
But now, the regime “may circle the wagons a little more,” and Gadhafi will think, “‘I’m a hunted criminal and should pursue civil war to the end,’” Ahmida said.
An alarming perspective, no doubt, considering that the conflict in Libya has already accounted for over 13,000 deaths and is entering its 4th month. Already, the entire affair in Libya has stressed the effectiveness of the ICC and the way the conflict will ultimately pan out could again negatively cloud its credibility. Indeed, there needs to be an international court in which crimes that defy the scope of ordinary law can be tried. Sadly, every new and remaining ICC warrant yet to be carried to fulfillment reminds the world of this.